Turlock and Central Valley Housing Market Update - August 4th, 2023

The Latest Central Valley Housing Market Update

[Transcript Below]

0:00 Everybody all of you out there who love the housing market they love real estate They love all things that I have to do with selling and buying homes.

0:08 Welcome to this week's central valley housing market update and Everybody else that is probably curious, so you're watching this video.

0:17 This week, we wanna dive into the numbers, see exactly what's happening in our local market. And so, without any further ado, let's go.

0:24 First of all, let's do our weekly look at our, towns around us. Turlock 76 active listings up from 73 the week prior 63 pending listings up one from the week prior 11 closed escrow same as the week before and the average number of offers coming in 2.4 offer on every listing that went pending this last

0:44 week in Turlock. Modesto, our inventory is up to 201 homes available for sale up from 193 the week prior. 156 went pending.

0:52 Our pending down from 168 the week prior. Prior 36 closed escrow 31 the week prior show up just slightly there and the number of offers 2.4 on average in Modesto as well down from 3.1 the week prior.

1:04 Ripon back to 10 active homes for sale and the lovely. Community of Ripon. Down from 13 the week prior, 11 pending, three closed escrow, and the average number of offers on homes in Ripon was one.

1:18 Mantica, down slightly, 91 active listings, 93 the week prior, Pending 103 the week prior 17 closed escrow and that's up from 11 the week prior average number of offers pretty much The exact same at 1.4 1.5 offers.

1:33 What does this look like in the grand scheme of things? Well really what it looks like in the grand scheme of things is stagnation.

1:39 Our market definitely seems to be stagnant. Look at our chart here as we look at what's happened in the market here, the number of homes for sale, the number that have sold, and the number of pending.

1:48 Now we do see a slight uptake in July for the number of homes for sale. That is normal. In fact, look back here, d*** back to 2022.

1:57 We went up in July and then we kind of start to taper off usually again August September. October into the winter months.

2:04 Like that's a typical cycle. If we were to go back five, 10, 15 years, you would see that that's a normal cycle to happen.

2:10 But look at where the top is, the hump on this one. Yep, not quite like last year, right? We're literally you're about to see here in just a second I think is a third of the number of homes somewhere around there that we had at the same time last year.

2:24 But notice also the number of homes that sold actually pretty similar to last year as far as the number of sold listings, the only difference is the number for sale is still a lot lower.

2:37 Why is that happening? Well, that's really because we're in this stagnating point in the market. Well, why are we in a stagnating point in the market?

2:44 I think the best explanation for that is this. Number one, interest rates. Number two, interest rates. Number three, interest rates.

2:55 Look here from maincrate.com. Average, weekly national mortgage interest rate trends on average, 30-year fixed, which is what the vast majority of people that purchase homes with the mortgage use, average rate 7.32% Yes, you're seeing that correctly, 7.32%.

3:15 Well, when you look at where everybody's at right now that currently holds a mortgage, 92% of them have a mortgage of 6% or less, 82, 5% or less, 62, 4%.

3:25 Or less, 25, 3% or less, all of these people with these rates are not putting their homes on the market, which is why if you go backwards, you see this little thing, this little blip here as far as the number of homes or so, they're not putting their homes on the market.

3:39 Because they don't want to exchange their two, three percent interest rate for one of those seven percent interest rates. So as we move through this, you can see here that average, you see where that's at, you see the stagnant market.

3:50 Inventory is still low, but there's But there has slowly been increasing, but it will, inventory is still low, but it has slowly been increasing.

4:01 The market is stagnating. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, sometimes it becomes a mouthful. Stagnating. I think that's the best way to look at it.

4:09 What does it mean if you're a seller, it's still a seller's market with very low inventory. However, don't expect the moon with the current interest rates affecting buyers.

4:16 They don't have a lot of wiggle room to increase their offers or to mess around. If you're a buyer, if you have cash, you should cash in cash is king because the interest rates are not affecting you, but you can put more pressure on the sellers out there that do need to sell.

4:31 If you're buying with the mortgage, be mindful of your payment with the rating. Increases, check with your lender, make sure where your payments at today, because if you got pre-approved and the rates were 6.5%, now where they're at today, your payment could be a lot different.

4:42 So check on that if you're out there actively looking. And number two, plan to refinance when rates come down. Caleb O'Hara here, the red shoe realtor with the core team at Remax bringing you your Central Valley market update.

4:52 We keep you moving forward. We want to be your resource for all things. Real estate, color Texas, 209-239-23703, have a great week.

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